Legal & disclaimers

These are our model's opinions — not facts

Polypredict shows its own probabilistic model opinionsabout how likely future events are. These estimates are not facts, not certainties, and not the output of any oracle or authority. They are one model's guess, expressed as a probability with a range around it.

Every estimate is shown with an uncertainty range for a reason: the number in the middle is not where reality will land — it is the model's best guess, and the true outcome may fall anywhere across (or outside) that range.

This is not advice

Nothing on Polypredict is, and nothing here should be taken as:

• Not financial advice.
• Not investment advice.
• Not legal advice.
• Not tax advice.
• Not gambling or betting advice.

We are not your broker, adviser, or fiduciary, and we have no view on your particular circumstances. Do not treat an estimate, edge, or illustrative stake as a recommendation to act.

The model is frequently wrong

Probabilistic forecasts are wrong all the time — that is the nature of forecasting. An event our model called “unlikely” will still happen a fair share of the time, and vice versa. A gap between our estimate and a market price (an “edge”) is only the model's estimated disagreement with that price — it is not a promise of a better outcome and it is regularly mistaken.

Past calibration does not guarantee future results.

You are responsible for your own decisions

Any decision you make is yours alone. You are solely responsible for your own choices and their consequences, and for determining whether placing any bet or trade is legal where you are. Laws on prediction markets, wagering, and trading vary by jurisdiction and change over time. Any legality signal Polypredict displays is a best-effort, unverified convenience — not legal advice and not a substitute for checking your local law or consulting a qualified professional.

Read-only — execution is off

Polypredict is a read-only analysis tool. It does not place orders, move money, or execute trades on your behalf. Automated execution is off. If you choose to act on any market, you do so yourself, elsewhere, entirely at your own risk.

Market data comes from a third party

Market prices, volumes, and related data are sourced from Polymarket, a third party. That data is unverified, may be delayed, incomplete, or inaccurate, and can change without notice. Polypredict is not affiliated with or endorsed by Polymarket, and we do not guarantee the accuracy of any third-party data shown.