the public record
We disagree with the market in public — and get graded on it.
Polypredict puts its own price-blind probability on every live Polymarket market, publishes the disagreement with an uncertainty range and a per-jurisdiction legality read, and scores every call when reality answers. Often wrong, never advice — and never an order placed.
Invite-only while the record accrues. Already accepted? Sign in
- 0+
- live markets scanned
- 0%
- of forecasts graded vs outcomes
- 0
- orders placed — read-only, ever
Will the Fed cut rates at the September 2026 meeting?
Will GPT-6 ship publicly before the end of 2026?
Did France top their 2026 World Cup group?
Did France top their 2026 World Cup group?
Bitcoin above $150k on December 31, 2026?
US CPI above 3% year-over-year in the October print?
Will the incumbent win Brazil's 2026 presidential runoff?
Named Atlantic storm makes US landfall at Cat 4+ in 2026?
Did the Fed cut rates at the June 2026 meeting?
Did the Fed cut rates at the June 2026 meeting?
the scanner
Forecast blind. Publish. Get graded.
Four moves, every market, every refresh. The price enters exactly once — after the forecast is locked, never before.
- 01
Blind to the price
The forecaster never sees the market price. When we disagree with the crowd, it's a real opinion — not an echo of the number we're graded against.
- 02
A probability, with its uncertainty
Every market gets a calibrated estimate and a credible interval — wide when we don't know. Never false precision.
- 03
Legality, per jurisdiction
Your jurisdiction × the bet's category, with a cited source. A sports bet can be illegal where an economics one is fine — every tile says which.
- 04
Graded on resolution
When the market resolves, the call is scored — Brier, log-loss — and posted. Hits and misses alike. Nothing is quietly deleted.
the record
Scored in the open, or it doesn't count.
Every forecast is timestamped before resolution and scored after — against the outcome, and against the market price it never saw.
illustrative preview — the live record accrues here as markets resolve
- 0.146
- model Brier · lower is sharper
- 0.197
- the market's own Brier — the bar
- 3.1%
- expected calibration error
- 83%
- resolved calls on the right side
beats the price it was blind to
The fine print, up front: edge is unproven until the forward record proves it, P&L is midpoint-optimistic, and a short record is a weak verdict. We publish anyway — misses stay on the board.
by design
What it will never do.
No execution, ever
Polypredict never places an order, never touches funds, never holds keys. The execution path ships OFF — read-only is the design, not a setting.
No advice
Model opinions with error bars, not recommendations. The per-jurisdiction legality read is informational and cited — never a green light. Not financial, legal, tax, or gambling advice.
No hiding the misses
The model is often wrong. Every graded miss stays on the public board next to the hits — that's the entire point of grading in the open.
one kernel · three horizons
Polypredict is the proof leg of a bigger machine.
One forecasting kernel — calibrated, blind, graded — pointed at three futures. This is where it earns the right to be believed.
Predictive
invite-onlyThe kernel, pointed at your company
The same calibrated forecasting engine, put to work on the decisions a company bets on — demand, churn, launches — each one scored when the outcome lands.
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you are hereThe future, tested in public
This site: the kernel against real prediction markets, blind to the price, with a graded public record. The proof leg of the whole machine.
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live · openA future that acts for you
Agents that don't just predict — they represent you, with persistent memory and signed mandates to negotiate and transact on your behalf.
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read-only · execution off · not advice