See where our model disagrees with the market — and whether you can legally act on it.
Polypredict puts its own price-blind probability estimate on every live Polymarket event, shows it against the market with an uncertainty range, and tells you — per bet, per jurisdiction — whether you can legally place it. Often wrong, never advice.
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- live markets scanned
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- jurisdictions
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Live demo · illustrative
What the scanner surfaces
Our estimate vs. the market, with an uncertainty range and a legality read — refreshing on its own.
Will the Fed cut rates in July?
Our model
52%
US GDP growth above 3% in Q3?
Our model
33%
US recession declared in 2026?
Our model
27%
Illustrative sample — these markets and figures are invented. The live app scans real Polymarket markets; estimates are uncertain and often wrong, and nothing here is advice.
The edge
A probability model, not a tipsheet.
Four things working together to surface where our model's probability diverges from the market price — and whether placing that bet is legal where you are.
Blind to the price
The forecaster never sees the market price. So when it disagrees with the market, that gap is a real opinion — not a circular echo of the crowd. That blindness is the whole edge.
Model says
61%
Market price
hidden
Sized to survive
Correlated fractional Kelly over the joint outcome distribution, stress-tested with a bankroll Monte Carlo for risk-of-ruin and drawdown.
Per-bet legality
Your jurisdiction × the bet's category. A sports bet can be illegal where an economics one is fine — every card tells you which, with a cited source.
Executable arbitrage
Depth-walked coherence checks surface real, fillable price inconsistencies across related markets — net of fees, at the actual ask, not the midpoint.
How it works
Forecast → compare → check.
Three steps, every market, every refresh. The price only enters once — and never reaches the forecaster.
Forecast, blind
An ensemble estimates each event's probability in log-odds space and calibrates it — with the market price withheld the entire time.
61%
price hidden
Compare & size
We reveal the price, measure the gap, and compute an illustrative correlated-Kelly stake over the joint outcome distribution — a convex solve.
Check legality
For every market we also show whether placing that bet is lawful from where you are. Execution stays off — Polypredict never places an order.
United States
Economics bet
Under the hood
Real quant machinery.
Strictly-proper scoring, validated calibration, convex sizing, stress-tested bankroll math — the same pipeline runs on every market, every refresh.
Log-odds ensemble
Frontier models score each event in log-odds — blind to the market price the entire time.
Validated calibration
Platt scaling, deployed only when it strictly beats the raw model on a held-out split.
Vector Kelly
Correlated fractional Kelly over the joint outcome distribution — never full, never per-bet.
Bankroll Monte Carlo
Thousands of simulated paths for risk-of-ruin and 95th-percentile drawdown before a stake is shown.
We won't pretend.
Edge is unproven until forward paper-trading; backtest P&L is midpoint-optimistic; the per-bet legality is informational, not legal advice. Execution is built but stays OFF by default. Polypredict informs— it doesn't place orders, move money, or tell you what to do.
Invite-only
Get in early.
Polypredict is invite-only while we collect a forward track record. Join the waitlist and we'll reach out when your seat opens.
- Forecaster blind to the price
- Execution OFF — never places an order
- Live Polymarket data, 400+ markets
- Per-bet legality, cited