Polypredict

the public record

We disagree with the market in public — and get graded on it.

Polypredict puts its own price-blind probability on every live Polymarket market, publishes the disagreement with an uncertainty range and a per-jurisdiction legality read, and scores every call when reality answers. Often wrong, never advice — and never an order placed.

Invite-only while the record accrues. Already accepted? Sign in

0+
live markets scanned
0%
of forecasts graded vs outcomes
0
orders placed — read-only, ever
otherUnited States · Not legal here

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

mkt 7model 6-1
otherUnited States · Not legal here

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

mkt 16model 3-13
sportsUnited States · Not legal here

Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?

mkt 29model 18-11
economicsUnited States · Regulated path only

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

mkt 1model 20+19
otherUnited States · Not legal here

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

mkt 4model 4+0
otherUnited States · Not legal here

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

mkt 6model 2-4
otherUnited States · Not legal here

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?

mkt 2model 55+53
otherUnited States · Not legal here

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?

mkt 15model 45+30
market mosaic · model vs marketlive · polymarket

the scanner

Forecast blind. Publish. Get graded.

Four moves, every market, every refresh. The price enters exactly once — after the forecast is locked, never before.

  1. 01

    Blind to the price

    The forecaster never sees the market price. When we disagree with the crowd, it's a real opinion — not an echo of the number we're graded against.

  2. 02

    A probability, with its uncertainty

    Every market gets a calibrated estimate and a credible interval — wide when we don't know. Never false precision.

  3. 03

    Legality, per jurisdiction

    Your jurisdiction × the bet's category, with a cited source. A sports bet can be illegal where an economics one is fine — every tile says which.

  4. 04

    Graded on resolution

    When the market resolves, the call is scored — Brier, log-loss — and posted. Hits and misses alike. Nothing is quietly deleted.

the record

Scored in the open, or it doesn't count.

Every forecast is timestamped before resolution and scored after — against the outcome, and against the market price it never saw.

illustrative preview — the live record accrues here as markets resolve

0.146
model Brier · lower is sharper
0.197
the market's own Brier — the bar
3.1%
expected calibration error
83%
resolved calls on the right side

beats the price it was blind to

The fine print, up front: edge is unproven until the forward record proves it, P&L is midpoint-optimistic, and a short record is a weak verdict. We publish anyway — misses stay on the board.

reliability diagramillustrative
00252550507575100100
Perfect calibration (y = x)Our bins · sized by countx: predicted · y: observed · ECE 3.1%

by design

What it will never do.

No execution, ever

Polypredict never places an order, never touches funds, never holds keys. The execution path ships OFF — read-only is the design, not a setting.

No advice

Model opinions with error bars, not recommendations. The per-jurisdiction legality read is informational and cited — never a green light. Not financial, legal, tax, or gambling advice.

No hiding the misses

The model is often wrong. Every graded miss stays on the public board next to the hits — that's the entire point of grading in the open.

one kernel · three horizons

Polypredict is the proof leg of a bigger machine.

One forecasting kernel — calibrated, blind, graded — pointed at three futures. This is where it earns the right to be believed.

Predictive

invite-only

The kernel, pointed at your company

The same calibrated forecasting engine, put to work on the decisions a company bets on — demand, churn, launches — each one scored when the outcome lands.

Request access

Polypredict

you are here

The future, tested in public

This site: the kernel against real prediction markets, blind to the price, with a graded public record. The proof leg of the whole machine.

Join the waitlist

Digital Twins

live · open

A future that acts for you

Agents that don't just predict — they represent you, with persistent memory and signed mandates to negotiate and transact on your behalf.

Build your twin

invite-only

Watch the record being written.

We're letting people in slowly while the forward record accrues — graded calls, public misses and all. Join the waitlist and we'll reach out when your seat opens.

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read-only · execution off · not advice